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This is the third consecutive year that at least one of the teams has come in at 11-0 but this year it’s the Tigers. LY Auburn went ahead 14-0 in the first 9:18 but Bama pulled out a 26-21 win scoring a TD with 1:24 left. Alabama RB Ingram sat out most of the game winning drive with a bruised hip and was held to 30 yds. The Tigers had a 332-291 yd edge and a 151-73 yd rush edge. One of the biggest intangibles in this game LY was Auburn had the advantage of a bye the previous week and Alabama had the SEC Title gm vs #1 Florida on deck. This year Auburn is off a bye again but has the Title gm vs South Carolina on deck while Alabama is off an easy 63-7 win over Georgia St last Thursday. Bama has the edge on def (#3-39) and has held mobile QB’s from Ole Miss and Miss St to 47 ttl rush yds and 90 ypg pass (1-2 ratio). Auburn will be without 2 DL for the 1H and while it should be noted that the team with the better record is 19-8 in the Iron Bowl since ‘81 including winning 6 of the L/7 the Crimson Tide would love nothing better than to derail Newton’s Heisman and their rivals’ NC chances. 

PHIL’S FORECAST : ALABAMA 37 AUBURN 31

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The Horned Frogs while still #3 in the BCS have lost much of their lead over Boise the last couple of weeks as they beat San Diego St  40-35 in a misleading final. TCU actually led 34-14 at HT with an incredible 19-1 FD edge. They also led 40-21 in the 4Q before a couple of key turnovers. Last week they were on a bye while Boise won 51-0 in a national Friday night game. This week TCU gets bottom-dweller New Mexico and has outscored them by a combined 114-13 the L/3 yrs. LW, BYU destroyed the Lobos 40-7 as NM was down 20-0 at HT and outgained 366-183 thru 3Q’s. HC Patterson ran the ESPN circuit selling his team’s BCS chances, now the Frogs get to prove it on the field and should easily roll here as they finish their 2nd consecutive regular season at 12-0. 

PHIL’S FORECAST : TCU 51 NEW MEXICO 0

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This has been one of the closest rivalries in all of college football in recent memory as the L/5 gms have been decided by 2.6 ppg including 2 of the L/3 decided in OT. LY LSU pulled out a 33-30 OT win despite being outgained 375-326 and outFD’d 24-18. TY despite LSU’s 10-1 record and top 5 ranking, the Tigers will actually be underdogs in this game for the first time S/’02. Both teams last week were lucky to escape with wins over schools from the state of Mississippi as LSU came back from a 4Q deficit to win 43-36 over Ole Miss thanks to a celebration flag on the Rebels final TD. Arkansas meanwhile won 38-31 in 2OT over Miss St on the road. LSU still has a very slim chance at the national title game but those aspirations are squashed here by an Arkansas team who has a big January Bowl bid in mind.

PHIL’S FORECAST : ARKANSAS 34 LSU 27

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Quite possibly the biggest rivalry in all of college football, but has taken a back seat to some other great rivalries in recent years. Ohio St HC Tressel is a big reason for that as he is 8-1 vs the Wolves winning 6 straight! That’s after a 2-10-1 series run by the Buckeyes under former HC Cooper. LY in Ann Arbor OSU had already clinched the Big 10 title and forced 5 TO’s in a 21-10 win. Like LY OSU is again off a 3 pt thriller over Iowa in which the Bucks dropped a sure TD pass but Pryor responded with a 14 yd scramble for a FD on 4&10 which set up the GW TD with 1:47 left. UM meanwhile trailed Wisconsin 24-0 at the half before cutting it to 10 late 3Q before running out of steam as the Badgers pounded the Wolves on the ground (357-168 yd edge). QB Robinson set the NCAA QB rush record with 1538 (6.8) but he has struggled with accuracy in conf play with 9 int the L/6. UM is all’g a B10 worst 445 ypg and almost 40 ppg in conf play that’s not good going up against a high-powered Buckeye offense as they extend their series win streak while also winning a share of their 6th straight B10 title!

PHIL’S FORECAST : OHIO STATE 44 MICHIGAN 20

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Penn St has owned this series winning 8 of the L/10 and haven’t lost to MSU at home since 1965! In the last two years, PSU has won by 30 ppg and outgained MSU by 207 ypg. LY it was tied 7-7 at HT before PSU scored four 3Q TD’s on 3,3,1 and 5 play drives. The Lions were tied at 24 late 3Q last week when they ret’d a blk’d P for a TD which began a dominating 4Q as they scored 17 unanswered pts in the win over Indiana. MSU rallied from a 28-13 deficit into the 4Q vs Purdue also thanks to a blk’d P which set up the GW TD. QB Cousins (232, 67%, 18-9) scored the winner vs the Boilers despite ankle and shoulder inj’s. MSU allows 125 rush (3.6). This was rumored earlier to be Paterno’s last home game but he dispelled that in his weekly press conference. Nonetheless PSU is 18-1 SU in home finales and sends their seniors out on a high note.

PHIL’S FORECAST : PENN ST 27 MICHIGAN ST 20

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This game will be played in Kansas City for a 4th straight yr. LW the Tigers stayed in the B12 North race as they ended ISU’s season with a home shutout despite being outgained 332-306 as ISU missed FG’s from 27 and 38 yds. Missouri did lead 7-0 late 3Q when at 4&2 at their own 28 they ran a fake P 15 yd for a FD which sparked a TD drive. KU actually led OSU 14-10 after 1Q but the gm’s turning point came when trailing 17-14 as they were SOD at the OSU1 in the 2Q. The Cowboys rattled off 38 unanswered pts and finished with 36-18 FD and 597-288 yd edges. KU is #111 pass eff D while the Tigers are #1 B12 in scoring D (16 ppg).  Missouri has outside hopes of a BCS bowl if they can get to 10-2 and easily do so here.

PHIL’S FORECAST : missouri 34 kansas 13

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This is a must-win for both teams for different reasons as Texas A&M needs to win to still have a shot at the Big 12 South Title while Texas needs a win to keep their 12 str bowl streak intact. The Longhorns are 16-1(only loss to A&M in ‘06) in home finales and are 8-2 vs A&M as the 8 wins (all by DD’s) are by an avg of 22 ppg and the losses are by 5 and 8 pts. LW UT ended a 4 gm losing streak by beating FAU, 51-17. The Horns finished with 27-15 FD and 522-298 yd edges but led just 17-7 until a Hail Mary TD with :04 left 1H and a 57 yd IR TD in the 4Q sealed it. Meanwhile A&M took adv of Neb’s mistakes (16 pen and 2 TO) in a 9-6 home win for their 1st 5 gm win conf win streak S/’98. All 5 of those wins have come since QB Tannehill replaced Johnson and he is avg 261 ypg (69%) with a 10-3 ratio which has opened the run lanes for Gray (810, 5.3) who has 5 str 100 yd gms (1st Aggie S/’90).   It might be tough sledding in this one though as the Horns are still #8 NCAA ttl D. LW Texas QB showed signs of improvement with 323 total yds and 3 scores LW and is going against an A&M defense that is giving up 242 pass ypg. The Horns become bowl eligible.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Texas 20 texas A&M 17

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Maryland has won 7 of the L/10 in this series and the home team has won 4 of the L/5. LW the Terps were eliminated from ACC contention with a 30-16 loss to FSU which was very misleading as MD was done in by 4 TO’s incl a fmbl that was ret’d 90 yds for a TD with :36 left. Meanwhile NCSt won its 4th str over rival UNC, 29-25 and like the Maryland game was misleading. NC State was down by 9 when on 4&gl at the 2 a UNC DB tipped a pass back into play and WR Spencer took the ball off his shoelaces for a TD. Graham then took a PR untouched for an 87 yd TD. While the Pack get to the title gm with a win here, I’m going to go with the upset as MD will still play with a lot of emotion on Senior day and have a huge ST edge (#16-104).

PHIL’S FORECAST : maryland 27 nc state 24

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They call this series the “Holy War” and it will be the last time these two play it as the last game of the year as conference rivals as Utah moves to the Pac-10 and BYU goes independent next year. This gm has been decided by a TD or less 11x’s in 13 gms (OT LY). After having its bubble burst vs TCU (47-7), UT was upset at ND (28-3) and it looked headed that way thru 3Q’s vs SDSt. In pouring rain SDSt was up 27-17 when UT hit a 47 yd Hail Mary on the final play of the 1H. UT rallied in the 4Q and blk’d a punt at the 10, scoring 3pl later for their 1st lead of the gm. The Utes all’d 528 pass yds but got 2 int in incl one in the EZ with 1:22 left. LW BYU beat New Mexico 40-7, in a win as dominating as the score (366-183 yd edge thru 3Q). The Cougs built a 20-0 HT lead and rolled behind 3 frosh, QB Heaps (231 pass yd, 3 ttl TD), WR Hoffman (5 rec, 2 TD) and RB Quezada (107 rush yds, 1 TD). Like recent history, this game will be highly competitive and come down to the final series.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Utah 27 BYU 24

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Iowa has dominated this series the L/2 yrs as they have held Minny to just 7 (0.3) and 48 (1.3) rush yds and have shutout the Gohpers in B2B yrs for the 1st time S/’55-56. The Gophers had a bye to celebrate ending their 9 gm losing streak vs IL and this is the final gm for their all time leading passer, Iowa is off a 20-17 home loss to OSU, the 4th time TY they’ve allowed a gm winning 4Q TD drive. QB Stanzi (243, 66%, 23-4) is #6 NCAA pass eff but has failed to respond in 2 min drills in all 4 losses. Iowa should control the LOS in this one but don’t be surprised if Minnesota pulls out all the stops early with a lame-duck coaching staff.

PHIL’S FORECAST : iowa 38 minnesota 17